Decision Support Tools

These high quality user-tailored decision support tools and applications have been developed to address on-the-ground issues, empowering decision-makers to act locally on climate-sensitive challenges such as disasters, agriculture, water management ecosystem protection and land use.


Decision Support Tools

Topic








Dancing Rivers

Application Purpose   The purpose of this seasonal river morphological monitoring system is to provide a high-quality map of erosion and deposition areas in the village tracts along the Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar after the end of every monsoon season. Leveraging the power of Google Earth Engine to create a long-term historical morphological change map from 1988 – current year, this tool is also vital to identify morphologically active and stable channels. The system has been customized to readily upscale the tool and associated analytics to other river systems.    Application Uses   This tool is useful for broad spectrum of stakeholders in Myanmar with mandates to manage river and land systems. The Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems (DWIR), is planning to use this tool to undertake preliminary assessment of morphological changes before initiating detailed post-monsoon survey of river sections needing bank protection. The tool is also useful for General Administration Department (GAD) to identify new land areas created by deposition process. GAD has the mandate to allocate the new land for livelihood purposes. This dataset is useful for Department of Disaster Management (DDM) to identify affected settlements and come up with a preliminary estimate of compensation. The long term (30 year) historical dataset on erosion and deposition areas can help DWIR to identify hotspots and plan appropriate for mitigation and adaptation efforts. With the possibility of addition of census, infrastructure and socio-economic layers, information provided to users can be further enhanced.

Application Purpose   The purpose of this seasonal river morphological monitoring system is to provide a high-quality map of erosion and deposition areas in the village tracts along the Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar after the end of every monsoon season. Leveraging the power of Google Earth Engine to create a long-term historical morphological change map from 1988 – current year, this tool is also vital to identify morphologically active and stable channels. The system has been customized to readily upscale the tool and associated analytics to other river systems.    Application Uses   This tool is useful for broad spectrum of stakeholders in Myanmar with mandates to manage river and land systems. The Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems (DWIR), is planning to use this tool to undertake preliminary assessment of morphological changes before initiating detailed post-monsoon survey of river sections needing bank protection. The tool is also useful for General Administration Department (GAD) to identify new land areas created by deposition process. GAD has the mandate to allocate the new land for livelihood purposes. This dataset is useful for Department of Disaster Management (DDM) to identify affected settlements and come up with a preliminary estimate of compensation. The long term (30 year) historical dataset on erosion and deposition areas can help DWIR to identify hotspots and plan appropriate for mitigation and adaptation efforts. With the possibility of addition of census, infrastructure and socio-economic layers, information provided to users can be further enhanced.






Reservoir Assessment Tool for Lower Mekong Basin (RAT-Mekong)

The Reservoir Assessment Tool for the Lower Mekong Basin (RAT-Mekong)  supports the Mekong River Commission and its member countries with reservoir monitoring. It enables decision making and planning processes for flood, and drought management in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Reservoir monitoring includes reservoir state of storage change, surface area, inflow and outflow, and inferred reservoir rule curve (based on long-term records). The RAT-Mekong tool, which is open-source, replicable and scalable, aims to mitigate the challenges of data-scarce or data-restricted regions of the Mekong Basin and help the MRC and its member countries derive a broader picture of reservoir monitoring, reservoir operations and the potential impact of operations on floods, drought, natural river flow variability as a function of climate, hydrologic regime, and socio-economic indicators. With transboundary water resource management being a contentious topic in the Mekong region, this tool can facilitate transboundary regional cooperation and governance by providing unbiased data for all parties, needed to drive a fair and transparent water-sharing agreement and improving the decision-making on flood and drought management in the Lower Mekong Region.management in the Lower Mekong Region. Application Purpose     To provide near-real-time reservoir monitoring information including regularly estimating changes in reservoir storage, surface area, inflows, outflows, and inferred reservoir rule curve (Bonnema et al., 2016; 2017). This supports decision making, and planning process for drought and flood management in the Lower Mekong Basin.    Application Uses   Reservoir monitoring, water resources management, flood and drought management

The Reservoir Assessment Tool for the Lower Mekong Basin (RAT-Mekong)  supports the Mekong River Commission and its member countries with reservoir monitoring. It enables decision making and planning processes for flood, and drought management in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Reservoir monitoring includes reservoir state of storage change, surface area, inflow and outflow, and inferred reservoir rule curve (based on long-term records). The RAT-Mekong tool, which is open-source, replicable and scalable, aims to mitigate the challenges of data-scarce or data-restricted regions of the Mekong Basin and help the MRC and its member countries derive a broader picture of reservoir monitoring, reservoir operations and the potential impact of operations on floods, drought, natural river flow variability as a function of climate, hydrologic regime, and socio-economic indicators. With transboundary water resource management being a contentious topic in the Mekong region, this tool can facilitate transboundary regional cooperation and governance by providing unbiased data for all parties, needed to drive a fair and transparent water-sharing agreement and improving the decision-making on flood and drought management in the Lower Mekong Region.management in the Lower Mekong Region. Application Purpose     To provide near-real-time reservoir monitoring information including regularly estimating changes in reservoir storage, surface area, inflows, outflows, and inferred reservoir rule curve (Bonnema et al., 2016; 2017). This supports decision making, and planning process for drought and flood management in the Lower Mekong Basin.    Application Uses   Reservoir monitoring, water resources management, flood and drought management



Cambodia Protected Area Alerts System

















ClimateSERV

In SERVIR regions, where long-term ground observations of rainfall are sparse, there is a critical need for satellite and model-derived rainfall data for predicting droughts, estimating crop yields, and more. Decision-makers need a way to accurately assess how severe a drought will be, how it compares to past droughts, and its potential effect on crop yields. Such assessments require accurate estimations of rainfall variations in space and time. It is important to place an evolving dryer-than-normal season into historical context in order to analyze the severity of rainfall deficits. Until now, such analyses used rainfall data from specific points on the Earth's surface. However, that data fails to show the region-wide variability that reveals comprehensive rainfall patterns.  Application Purpose   SERVIR has created a user-friendly, web-based tool -- ClimateSERV -- that provides three important datasets together in one system to help decision-makers in SERVIR’s data-sparse regions assess the evolving situation via holistic analysis of water and agriculture. Using ClimateSERV, development practitioners, scientists/researchers, and government decision-makers can readily analyze historical rainfall for the past 30 years and compare it with the best available forecasts for the next 180 days for their defined area of interest to improve understanding of, and make improved decisions for, issues related to agriculture and water availability. The three key datasets that ClimateSERV provides to make this possible are as follows: (1) Climate Hazards group IR Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS): Scientists at Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS NET) who are members of the SERVIR Applied Sciences Team used 30 years’ (1982- present) worth of multiple satellite data sources and ground observations to produce an unprecedented, global, spatially and temporally consistent and continuous 30-year record of satellite-derived rainfall data. This CHIRPS global dataset makes it possible to accurately assess and monitor large-scale rainfall patterns and analyze how they may be affected by climate change. The data are updated to the latest available rainfall estimates.   (2)  North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) dataset: Forecasts of future precipitation are also critical to decision-makers. The NMME dataset, a compilation by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reflects cutting edge work on seasonal forecasting. A SERVIR AST project has taken the NMME data and performed bias correction and spatial disaggregation using standard, well-accepted techniques to generate daily, 180-day temperature and precipitation forecasts for the entire globe. These seasonal forecasts, along with the CHIRPS historical rainfall data, provide an overall perspective to connect rainfall patterns from the past to future rainfall (up to 180 days out) as projected by NMME.    (3)  MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (eMODIS NDVI): SERVIR is also piloting the USGS pentadal eMODIS NDVI dataset at 250m spatial resolution over West Africa. NDVI, a measure of vegetation condition, provides a proxy for agricultural productivity by showing photosynthetic activity. By providing this 15 year dataset, SERVIR is enabling Ministries of Agriculture and the international donor community to explore how CHIRPS and NMME data link to vegetation growth and health. (The NDVI dataset is being expanded to other parts of Africa and beyond.)   ClimateSERV enables decision-makers to link historical precipitation trends (CHIRPS) to past vegetation trends (NDVI) to gain insight into potential vegetation growth and health based on seasonal (up to 180 days) precipitation and temperature forecasts (NMME).   Application Uses   With this tool, decision-makers can download, view, graph, and interpret the CHIRPS, eMODIS NDVI, and NMME seasonal forecast data in a web-based user interface. ClimateSERV can help decision-makers assess and monitor large-scale rainfall patterns, analyze how those patterns may be affected by climate change, determine likelihood of drought, and infer crop condition. Kenya Meteorological Service field offices are already using the data to provide climate resilience guidance to farmers. For example, KMS’s Kericho office is using the CHIRPS dataset to downscale seasonal climate outlooks for farmers’ use in planning crop cultivars and planting times. SERVIR hubs plan to train end-users in their regions to use and analyze the CHIRPS, NMME, and NDVI data through ClimateSERV. Use of seasonal forecasts by end-users has been increasing.  ClimateSERV will assist in the conversion of these large datasets into actionable information. 

In SERVIR regions, where long-term ground observations of rainfall are sparse, there is a critical need for satellite and model-derived rainfall data for predicting droughts, estimating crop yields, and more. Decision-makers need a way to accurately assess how severe a drought will be, how it compares to past droughts, and its potential effect on crop yields. Such assessments require accurate estimations of rainfall variations in space and time. It is important to place an evolving dryer-than-normal season into historical context in order to analyze the severity of rainfall deficits. Until now, such analyses used rainfall data from specific points on the Earth's surface. However, that data fails to show the region-wide variability that reveals comprehensive rainfall patterns.  Application Purpose   SERVIR has created a user-friendly, web-based tool -- ClimateSERV -- that provides three important datasets together in one system to help decision-makers in SERVIR’s data-sparse regions assess the evolving situation via holistic analysis of water and agriculture. Using ClimateSERV, development practitioners, scientists/researchers, and government decision-makers can readily analyze historical rainfall for the past 30 years and compare it with the best available forecasts for the next 180 days for their defined area of interest to improve understanding of, and make improved decisions for, issues related to agriculture and water availability. The three key datasets that ClimateSERV provides to make this possible are as follows: (1) Climate Hazards group IR Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS): Scientists at Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS NET) who are members of the SERVIR Applied Sciences Team used 30 years’ (1982- present) worth of multiple satellite data sources and ground observations to produce an unprecedented, global, spatially and temporally consistent and continuous 30-year record of satellite-derived rainfall data. This CHIRPS global dataset makes it possible to accurately assess and monitor large-scale rainfall patterns and analyze how they may be affected by climate change. The data are updated to the latest available rainfall estimates.   (2)  North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) dataset: Forecasts of future precipitation are also critical to decision-makers. The NMME dataset, a compilation by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reflects cutting edge work on seasonal forecasting. A SERVIR AST project has taken the NMME data and performed bias correction and spatial disaggregation using standard, well-accepted techniques to generate daily, 180-day temperature and precipitation forecasts for the entire globe. These seasonal forecasts, along with the CHIRPS historical rainfall data, provide an overall perspective to connect rainfall patterns from the past to future rainfall (up to 180 days out) as projected by NMME.    (3)  MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (eMODIS NDVI): SERVIR is also piloting the USGS pentadal eMODIS NDVI dataset at 250m spatial resolution over West Africa. NDVI, a measure of vegetation condition, provides a proxy for agricultural productivity by showing photosynthetic activity. By providing this 15 year dataset, SERVIR is enabling Ministries of Agriculture and the international donor community to explore how CHIRPS and NMME data link to vegetation growth and health. (The NDVI dataset is being expanded to other parts of Africa and beyond.)   ClimateSERV enables decision-makers to link historical precipitation trends (CHIRPS) to past vegetation trends (NDVI) to gain insight into potential vegetation growth and health based on seasonal (up to 180 days) precipitation and temperature forecasts (NMME).   Application Uses   With this tool, decision-makers can download, view, graph, and interpret the CHIRPS, eMODIS NDVI, and NMME seasonal forecast data in a web-based user interface. ClimateSERV can help decision-makers assess and monitor large-scale rainfall patterns, analyze how those patterns may be affected by climate change, determine likelihood of drought, and infer crop condition. Kenya Meteorological Service field offices are already using the data to provide climate resilience guidance to farmers. For example, KMS’s Kericho office is using the CHIRPS dataset to downscale seasonal climate outlooks for farmers’ use in planning crop cultivars and planting times. SERVIR hubs plan to train end-users in their regions to use and analyze the CHIRPS, NMME, and NDVI data through ClimateSERV. Use of seasonal forecasts by end-users has been increasing.  ClimateSERV will assist in the conversion of these large datasets into actionable information. 



Historical Flood Analysis Tool

The Historical Flood Analysis tool facilitates the analysis of the locations and temporal distribution of surface water from 1984 to 2018 and provides statistics on the extent and change of those water surfaces. Globally, this data is generated using more than three million scenes from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 observations acquired between 16 March 1984 and 31 December 2018. Surface water frequency is calculated from the monthly data product. Interpreting “water recurrence” as seen by satellite allows for the distinction between episodic (less frequent but more extreme) and regular (or predictable) water.  Results can be downloaded in GeoTIFF format.   Application Purpose   The Historical Flood Analysis Tool is designed to provide the information regarding flood prone areas (e.g. frequency of seasonal flooding cycles) in the Lower Mekong Region. In regards to flood disaster risk management, flood frequency is important for disaster preparedness, especially in the context of advanced relief resource provision. For preparedness related to response to severe droughts, this tool is potentially useful for identifying areas of permanent water in the greater Mekong region.   Application Uses   With this tool, variable risk for floods and potentially for droughts can be found with identification of areas particularly prone to such disasters. This information can help with preparedness for prevention and response to flood disasters. With the possibility of addition of census, infrastructure and socio-economic layers, information provided to users can be further enhanced. Presently, the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in Myanmar is planning to use a modified version suited to their particular needs and requirements. 

The Historical Flood Analysis tool facilitates the analysis of the locations and temporal distribution of surface water from 1984 to 2018 and provides statistics on the extent and change of those water surfaces. Globally, this data is generated using more than three million scenes from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 observations acquired between 16 March 1984 and 31 December 2018. Surface water frequency is calculated from the monthly data product. Interpreting “water recurrence” as seen by satellite allows for the distinction between episodic (less frequent but more extreme) and regular (or predictable) water.  Results can be downloaded in GeoTIFF format.   Application Purpose   The Historical Flood Analysis Tool is designed to provide the information regarding flood prone areas (e.g. frequency of seasonal flooding cycles) in the Lower Mekong Region. In regards to flood disaster risk management, flood frequency is important for disaster preparedness, especially in the context of advanced relief resource provision. For preparedness related to response to severe droughts, this tool is potentially useful for identifying areas of permanent water in the greater Mekong region.   Application Uses   With this tool, variable risk for floods and potentially for droughts can be found with identification of areas particularly prone to such disasters. This information can help with preparedness for prevention and response to flood disasters. With the possibility of addition of census, infrastructure and socio-economic layers, information provided to users can be further enhanced. Presently, the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in Myanmar is planning to use a modified version suited to their particular needs and requirements.